Speculation Day 1 – Baby Daddy Confusion Drama

Finally that time of the week! It’s SPECULATION DAY! This is the new “edition”. I hope you all take time to read and or/comment these kind of posts. I know how much you like to discuss topics, yo! I decided to start this speculation posts again by request and because I thought some people may be assured that they’re not the only one thinking some ideas, and also to let this blog be more lively as it was in past.

I don’t know how much I’m gonna discuss today, but let’s start with the argument that’s been on people’s mouths blogs since the Season Premiere… Who is the baby daddy? Could it be Chuck, could it be Louis?

Of course everyone of us thinks it’s Chuck. But there are some confusing issues with timelines that haven’t been explained yet. This doesn’t mean that we need to doubt about Chuck being the father. We just need to wait, because being positive is the right state of mind. Many of you didn’t think Blair could be the one being pregnant, and here she is! About to get married and about to have her life changed by a baby.

We have really no idea if Louis and Blair had sex. She mentions them spending the night together in 4.20, but did we ever see them making out (please please spare us this scene, kthanks)? Practically, no. 4.20 time is May 2nd (when Chuck has the scruff), and May 3rd (BL scene in B’s room and Princesses’ Party). How do I know? Simply because you can see a “Monday May 2 2011” in the magazine that you see on Chuck’s living room table, this one (click for bigger):

Louis has arrived in NYC in 4.18, which was the week between April 11 and April 18. In fact that episode aired on April 18. Blair didn’t get to see him up until next episode, which is the day after he arrives, around April 14 or so I guess.

There’s a funny anecdote connected to this. Remember one of  Blair’s idols, Grace Kelly? We all know she was a famous American actress until she found her Prince and soon stopped acting for him. Prince Ranieri III was looking for a wife at that time, and he went to the US just for that. He and Grace had exchanged few letters, and he wanted to meet her in person. Fate (or case) wants that after Ranieri met Grace, he proposed to her three days later.

Coincidences wants they got married on April 18, 1956 with a civil ceremony. The day after with religious ceremony. Few months later, in January of 1957, they had their first daughter Caroline.

Doesn’t this look so familiar to you? Well, I’ll tell you that if Blair’s pregnancy comes to term, the baby will be delivered around the end of January. How do I know? Haha. That’s a million dollar question. Since GG Writers love to parallel things, searching on Google I found out January 27th is the day Monegasque people celebrate the saint of their princedom, Saint Devote. Oh. Casuality that’s where Blair and Louis wedding is going to be held!

Well, I tried guessing Blair and Louis’ sexual encounter happened during the week before May 6th (what was written on the cheque Chuck gives to the guy at the Bat mitzvah) because in 4.21 that is basically also 4.22, Chuck tells Blair that he’s been going through a lot since that night of 4.20 (that supposedly happened on May 2nd like the newspaper said), and after April 14 (4.19). Considering Louis’ mom arrives in 4.20 I don’t think BL consumed while she was there, because I bet Sophie was close to her son and was inspecting Blair with suspicious eyes. So before? Well like I said 4.20 is on May 2nd/3rd, so then.

Why am I thinking this, why I look so sure (or almost)? Because in 4.19 the day after Louis comes to NYC, the major event of the episode is the Breast Cancer Awareness fund-raiser party, a real event that our beloved Lily (Kelly Rutherford) attended for real on April 14. If they respected the real life timeline, so that 4.19 happened on April 14 (I said Louis may had come to NYC after April 11), then 4.20 should had happened few weeks after. (I think Sophie didn’t want to wait any longer to surprise her son with a visit. Haha.) This means that from 4.20 to 4.21/4.22 passes no more than a week. There’s no mention of sex between Blair and Louis after 4.20, so I supposed they don’t have it?

Like you, I am confused by the timelines. So I searched a website where you can count how many days you are pregnant (supposedly) considering the date of your last period/supposed date of when you think is going to be delivered.

I tried with Chuck and not Louis because supposedly they had sex with Blair the same week, quite like Chuck and Nate during episode 1.13. Chuck, considering he and Blair SURELY had sex on May 6th (there’s the cheque to prove it, yo), and Louis,considering he and Blair had sex between April 14 and May 6 (just to confuse things more!).

Here’s what I get if I put that January 27th 2012 date that is the Saint Devote date and the due date for a baby conceived during the 2 – 7 May week (I had tried a different site that told me a baby conceived around May 6th could be due in those days of Winter), and see what we get (click on the pic to see it bigger):

Well, timeline is perfect, isn’t it?

But there’s also Louis. Considering we don’t know when 5.01 is set – July or August, because the seamstress just guessed she was 6 weeks along – I will guess that Blair was already pregnant after May 6th, whether the baby is Chuck’s or not.

The fact is that if 4.20 is set on May 2nd/3rd like you can see in the pic, either Chuck or Louis can still be the fathers because the test was taken before Blair left. But there’s no way in my opinion that she may be pregnant with Louis.

RECAP:

  • 4.18 – Louis arrives, between April 11 and April 18
  • 4.19 – Breast Cancer Awareness Party, April 14
  • 4.20 – Newspaper says it’s May 2nd, events also take place on May 3rd (Louis’ proposal and/or Blouis sex)
  • 4.22 – Chuck and Blair have sex, May 6th
  • 4.22 – Three weeks after May 6th, supposedly last week of May (around the 27-31)
  • 5.01 – The seamstress guesses Blair is 6 weeks pregnant, Half of July? August? We have no idea if the six weeks after the finale include those three weeks.

So, to end this thingy, I’d say either is possible, but we all know and hope he is the one. This storyline could give Chuck many good things, starting from confidence, altruism, take care of other people, try to express his feelings and be less diffident, be a man his father never was. This guys, would never be given to a guest star. The guest star is just … a guest. Louis will leave at some point, and we won’t care about him anymore, so there’s no point for the writers to make Blair pregnant with a guy that isn’t a regular, and let’s be honest, has no chemistry with Leighton.

Few things I can add to this spec is that there were some things that showed us how even if Blair didn’t mention Chuck in the premiere, how the two are connected (and not only by the baby).

Chuck’s bruise, a bruise on his torso right under his heart, is meaningful. It can be paralleled with Blair and her tummy right now. Both have growing pains, but only Blair’s will effectively grow. Chuck’s pain is inside, hidden. The bruise is a proof that it’s there and knocking on his body that has kept it in a dark corner after the finale.

I just want to tell you that until we are proven otherwise, we shouldn’t give up on the baby. I am positive we’re getting our happy end someday. Chuck and Blair are important and they will always be. No matter now they are separated, they will be reunited by fate or something (eek even if I dislike the idea of fate after Lost). And wait to see things! Freak out before anything is sure, is wrong. Keep the positive thoughts and believe in Baby Bass! ; )

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About purplebass

hey, you! Thank you for stopping by. I'm Tweety, and I am a girl who loves writing, reading, and watching stuff on TV and write reviews about it. I currently study languages (English and Spanish) @ University here where I live in Italy. I dream to become a teacher or something more impossible, like a writer. For the moment I only write stories on my laptop and review a lot of books. Speaking of which, I'm really into YA despite I am not a teenager anymore, and if you have suggestions, I am always open to hear your book advice! :D

28 thoughts on “Speculation Day 1 – Baby Daddy Confusion Drama

  1. Lauren says:

    Dang, you did a lot of research! lmao I love it. Even more proof that it’s Chuck’s. *pushes semi-legit proof of it being Louis’* I love it!

  2. Ellen says:

    Thank you so much for this! I love your specs, and I love how much thought you put into it.

    And OMG! The conception calendar is so perfect! You win. The baby daddy has got to be Chuck.

  3. grace says:

    You’re brilliant!
    Of course,Chuck is the father.What the writers are doing is creating unnecessary drama.First was ‘Who’s pregnant?’, now ‘Who’s the father?’ and ‘When the bomb will be dropped?’ after.But i’m sure that ‘a very naive extra'(with a little ‘help’ from Leighton) leak out about it.
    And this timeline ends with any suggestion that Dan might be the father of Blair’s baby because the kiss happened in the ides of march.
    It’s Baby Bass b….!
    What do you think about Blair and Dorota pregnant? Blair and Dorota.Both pregnant.Patron and housemaid.I don’t know exactly what the writers want with it.

  4. fanny says:

    awesome baby bass on the way love it

  5. GFF says:

    Wow that is really good calculation. It just makes sense that the baby is a Bass. Look, when CB hooked up at the bar mitzvah it is highly unlikely that they used protection. AND Blair wouldn’t need to be on the pill because she hasn’t been with Chuck since 4×09 and only been with Louis a few weeks. the writers decided to heighten the drama more by possibly adding Dan into the mix which I know that is purely to feed to all the DBers.
    And why would it be easy to assume that there’ll be a miscarriage :-/ I don’t get it. I just don’t see the writers doing such a cop out. If they do it right and I kinda have an inkling they will, the baby will bloom fully and we’ll get to be ‘present’ in that delivery room like a Rachel-Ross esque episode. All of the CB angst, pain, separation has finally paid off and I honestly think we deserve such a reward.
    Amen.

  6. teeting says:

    TY! You did some incredible, time-consuming work and we are so thankful for it! It has to be Chuck’s. I mean come on, like you said, Louis is a GUEST and he and Blair/Leighton have nothing between them … no spark, and definitely no fireworks. I agree with the drama of it all; they want us to freak out until we know “for sure”. Blair and Chuck are endgame. Period. TY again!

  7. Nichole says:

    This post is too epic for words!! You rock, girl! The conception chart is the best. Love it!

  8. nana says:

    Wow! you actually researched the dates 🙂

    I think it is Baby Bass and it happened during Chair encounter after the Bar Mitzvah (it happened so fast that Chuck forgot his condom?? Blair forgot to take her pills?? who knows).

    Maybe Blair loses the baby and eventually told Chuck about it. They came to their senses, Blair called off her wedding, Chair is reunited and they go to college again!!

    • nana says:

      Btw, I’m glad the Speculation Post 1 came out today.. today it’s my birthday! 🙂 🙂

      Also, I conceived my first child between May 3rd – May 10. She was born on Jan 24th. Coincidence eh?

      Maybe Chair was together after midnight i.e. May 3rd (Bar Mitzvah scene)? Just my thought 😉

      • nana says:

        oooppss.. sorry pls ignore May 2nd thingy in my post.. I meant May 6th is the perfect time for Blair to conceive Baby Bass.. hehe..

  9. Cornelia says:

    I can see how you invest in shipping CB. Your analysis is great and very convincing. I am. for some reasons, pretty sure the baby is Chuck’s but with your logical thinking, everything makes more sense. Thank you and keep up your brilliancy.

  10. chairfan says:

    ohh i really like this :)! i agree with the fact that it’s either louis or chuck, but some people are saying that it could be dan(?). i don’t think so though because the timing would be really messed up. the only thing is in dan’s book there is a sex scene (at least i think that’s what they were talking about) and that could be a link to them actually having done it…so…i don’t know.
    anyway, i love your parallels between chuck and blair.
    if they aren’t together at the end of the season, someone’s going down.

  11. Lisa says:

    Ho provato anch’io la cosa del calendario ieri lol
    Ma é sicuramente di chuck, perché secondo me 5×01 é veramente ambientata 6 settimane Dopo il 6 maggio, perché le tre settimane dopo blair ha fatto il test… E quello non lo fai se credi che sei in cinta da pochi giorni!!

  12. amanda says:

    I really love all the research you did, it’s amazing! and the timelines fit almost perfectly! but tbph i am a little worried about Dan being the baby daddy (please don’t hate me!) especially because this is GG and writers basically live for shocking, out-of-nowhere OMG moments (I really believe they’re capable of ignore the timeline completely) ugh I really don’t know, I just think it’s too obvious Chuck’s the father and all this “dair is not going to be romantic” comments from JS sound too good to be true…. i just can’t bring myself to trust the writers, i really can’t…. but like all of you i’m hoping with all my heart that i’m wrong and i’m gonna pray so we can get a Baby Bass this season..

    • grace says:

      I confess that sometimes i have a certain little afraid too, despite my jokes and stuff.

      Think positive and #savechuckblairandbabybass

  13. Liz says:

    Awesome post!!

  14. grace says:

    Josh 2.0 said the pregnancy news will have a major impact in Chuck’s life.
    Do you think he’ll know that he is the baby daddy or Blair will say Louis is the father?
    My biggest fear is the writers made him acting like a coward.

  15. ros says:

    thanks for the post! Im keeping my fingers crossed it’s chuck’s baby too! can’t wait for episode 2 to air and hopefully more chuck and blair scenes. Ur comparison of blair’s tummy to chair’s bruise really sheds light on things, looking forward to more spec posts:)

  16. Krista says:

    It has to be Chuck’s. Like a week or so ago (it was actually Sp, I asked the Gossip Girl Writers twitter how much time had past between the finale they said less than six weeks. Blair is six weeks pregnant. The timeline for a Chair baby is pretty perfect. The ONLY way this wouldn’t work is if Louis/Blair had sex which if it was important to the story, wouldn’t they show it?? Also, the writers probably wouldn’t had that scene between Blair and Chuck in the finale if it wasn’t important. I can almost bet that it had deeper meaning than that they still had feelings for one another.

    Bottom line: I’m like 90% sure it’s Chuck. The timing works too perfectly for it to not be.

  17. Zara says:

    royals dont have sex before marriage, so its chucks. easy.. 🙂

  18. xoxoGG says:


    >> blair and dorota are definitely pregnant !

  19. Becca says:

    okay i thought i was the only one who made weird speculations until i saw this…WHOLY CRAP GIRL UR BTR THEN ME! and it all totally makes sense *leap n gasp*. i cannot wait till the bomb is dropped and us chair fans will live in glory haha.

  20. love love love says:

    SHIT!! THANK YOU! YOU ROCK GIRLFRIEND!

  21. cecilia says:

    mmmm in the newest ep (ep2 of season 5) blair says she has sex with louis ‘more than once’ and she says she only had sex with chuck once. also, it is revealsed that this louis character will leave near the second half of the season, while his sister remains behind?? mm many things to think about.

    I wonder if the produces thought this out as well as you have, you would be anamazing asset to the gossip girl production.

    ive seen the new previews for ep 3 and she tears up the letter saying who the dad is, and then physically fights with dan… again.

    c’mon season five lets hope you go off with a bang and not be a dud like season 3. lets hope for six seasons of GG before they end it!

  22. Yelitza says:

    Wow the data do not lie, you’re awesome! I do not think were protected in the Bar Mitzvah. Ending the episode leaves a positive pregnancy test and three weeks later.

  23. Yelitza says:

    Wow los datos no mienten, eres increible! No creo que se protegieran en el Bar Mitzvah. Terminando el episodio sale la prueba de embarazo positivo y tres semanas despues. Ademas en el episodio 2 de la quinta temporada ella le dice a Dan “este bebe fue concebido con amor asi que me lo voy a quedar” Ahi hay un guiño, ella presiente quien es el padre. Todo esto de la duda del padre del bebe es una treta de los productores para crear tension.

    • Yelitza says:

      Wow the data do not lie, you’re awesome! I do not think were protected in the Bar Mitzvah. Ending the episode leaves a positive pregnancy test and three weeks later. Also in episode 2 of season five she tells Dan “this baby was conceived with love so I’m going to be” There’s a nod, she feels he is the father. This whole question of the baby’s father is a ploy of the producers to create tension.

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